Conspiracy Collation

Conspiracy is a medium set with 80 commons, 60 uncommons, 35 rares, 10 mythic rares, 13 conspiracy cards, and 12 cards with draft-related abilities. This is an unusual size, as (not counting the special cards) the uncommon, rare, and mythic counts match a small set but the common count is in larger (but less than a large set). Foil cards are included in booster packs with advertised odds of 1 : 67 cards. The set was printed in the USA. [1]

Conspiracy was sold in 15 card booster packs (which contain an additional ad card). Booster boxes have 36 packs.

Pack Anatomy

Conspiracy uses sequential collation.

Packs are back-facing and have only 10 commons followed by 3 uncommons, a rare, either a conspiracy or a card with a draft-related ability, and an ad card. Foil conspiracies and foil cards with draft-related abilities displace the conspiracy or the card with the draft-related ability (and appears in the same place in the pack). Otherwise, the foil will displace a common and appear immediately after the rare. Probably it is not possible for two foils to appear in the same pack.

10 Commons3 Uncommons1 Rare1 Conspiracy/Draft Card1 Ad Card
9 Commons3 Uncommons1 Rare1 Foil1 Conspiracy/Draft Card1 Ad Card
10 Commons3 Uncommons1 Rare1 Foil Conspiracy/Draft Card1 Ad Card

There are 4 common runs: A, B, C, and D. A and C each contain 22 distinct cards each three times. B and D each contain 17 distinct cards each three times. Packs always get 2-3 A cards, then 2-3 B cards, then 2-3 C cards, then 2-3 D cards. Togther A and B always have 5 cards, and C and D together also have 5. With no foils, A and C would get three cards 3/4 of the time. I haven't analyzed the pattern closely, but the reality seems to have A at 4/5 and C at 3/4. It is likely that A and B are printed on one sheet and C and D are printed on another sheet.


For the normal foils that displace common cards, foil commons displace A commons, foil uncommons displace C commons, and foil rares and mythic rares displace D commons.

If packs with 3 A commons do indeed appear 4/5 of the time, we can use this to calculate the exact foil common rate as 1/9. This is plausible both empircally (74/671) and from the collation pattern (although the pattern is not strong evidence given the data I have).

Unfortunately, the same analysis applied to the C and D cards creates a problem. Since 3 C commons already seem to appear 3/4 of the time, foil uncommons and foil rares (plus mythics) should be equally rare to keep the C and D cards properly balanced. But, it is pretty clear this is not the case. This suggests the 3/4 is incorrect (although I haven't found any evidence to the contrary) or C cards are short-printed vs D. But it makes little since to short-print some cards on a sheet and not others. (It would involve throwing cards away.)

Furthermore, since uncommon and rare (plus mythic) foils combined are less than the foil common rate, it appear that the sheet with A and B is short-printed compared to the sheet with C and D. (This is not as much of a problem, as the sheets can just be printed in a slightly different ratio.)

Based on pure collation patterns, the foil rare (plus mythic) rate appears to be exactly 1/28. This is also plausible empirically (24/671).

Conspiracy and draft foils appear to be printed on different sheets. I have only observed one rare and no uncommons from this group of cards, but based on collation patterns the commons appear to have the same rate as normal foil rares: 1/28 (empirically, 23/671). This means that on an individual basis, foils of these cards are almost three times as likely than normal foil commons. Also, note that the foil rare appeared to be collated differently than the commons, so these may be on different sheets as well.

Uncommons are printed on one sheet with each card appearing twice (and one filler). This is divided into a 66-card A run (with 33 distinct cards) and a 54-card B run (with 27 distinct cards). Packs can have either 2 A cards followed by 1 B card, or 1 A card followed by 2 B cards. Since the runs are unbalanced, 2 A cards happens 13/20 of the time. (This is a number I calculated mathematically and haven't checked carefully in the collation patterns.)

The conspiracy and draft cards are printed on one sheet. There are 9 commons, 9 uncommons, and 7 rares. The rares appear twice each on the sheet. The commons appear 8 times each on the sheet. Some of the uncommons appear three times and some four times. According to my results, Cogwork Grinder and Cogwork Tracker both appear only three times. This only adds up to 120 cards (which is perhaps surprising). (As always, it's possible for there to be an error in my results, but I observed each card on the sheet at least twice expect for one card.) Note that if all the uncommons appeared four times, they wouldn't fit on the sheet.

Calculating the exact rarities of conspiracy and draft cards depends on unknown foil rates, but they are actually not very similar to other cards in the set. They aren't completely unreasonable, though. For example, ignoring foils, rares appear at a 1/60 rate which, although low for this set, is normal for a large set.

Common Runs

The A common run consists of 22 different cards each appearing three times. The cards are alternating white and blue. The choice of first card is mostly arbitrary.

Aether TradewindsPillarfield OxTraveler's CloakApex HawksMarchesa's EmissaryNoble TemplarBrainstormDoomed TravelerGrixis IllusionistStave OffTurn the Tide
Ajani's SunstrikerPlated SeastriderPride GuardianCrookclaw TransmuterSilverchase FoxDream FractureCourier HawkBrainstormApex HawksGrixis IllusionistBrago's Representative
Reckless ScholarPillarfield OxMarchesa's EmissaryCustodi SquireTraveler's CloakNoble TemplarAether TradewindsPride GuardianEnclave EliteStave OffDream Fracture
Doomed TravelerTurn the TideSilverchase FoxBrainstormAjani's SunstrikerReckless ScholarApex HawksCrookclaw TransmuterBrago's RepresentativeMarchesa's EmissaryCourier Hawk
Enclave ElitePillarfield OxPlated SeastriderNoble TemplarDream FracturePride GuardianGrixis IllusionistCustodi SquireTurn the TideDoomed TravelerAether Tradewinds
Stave OffTraveler's CloakBrago's RepresentativeEnclave EliteAjani's SunstrikerCrookclaw TransmuterCourier HawkReckless ScholarCustodi SquirePlated SeastriderSilverchase Fox

The B common run consists of 18 different cards each appearing three times. This run contains all the red commons plus a few blue cards. The choice of first card is mostly arbitrary.

Torch FiendWrap in FlamesMana GeyserPitchburn DevilsSkitter of LizardsShoreline RangerCinder WallGrenzo's CutthroatBrimstone VolleyFlowstone BladeEnraged Revolutionary
Vent SentinelChartooth CougarLizard WarriorWrap in FlamesTrumpet BlastTorch FiendOrcish CannonadeGrenzo's CutthroatScreaming SeahawkFlowstone BladeCinder Wall
Enraged RevolutionaryPitchburn DevilsSkitter of LizardsMana GeyserShoreline RangerOrcish CannonadeBrimstone VolleyPower of FireGrenzo's CutthroatChartooth CougarTrumpet Blast
Screaming SeahawkWrap in FlamesEnraged RevolutionaryLizard WarriorVent SentinelFlowstone BladeShoreline RangerTorch FiendSkitter of LizardsPower of FirePitchburn Devils
Chartooth CougarMana GeyserTrumpet BlastLizard WarriorOrcish CannonadeCinder WallVent SentinelBrimstone VolleyScreaming SeahawkPower of Fire

The C common run consists of 22 different cards each appearing three times. The cards are alternating black and green. The choice of first card is mostly arbitrary.

Sakura-Tribe ElderStronghold DisciplineHowling WolfGrudge KeeperScaled WurmInfectious HorrorSelvala's EnforcerZombie GoliathPlummetWakedancerGnarlid Pack
Twisted AbominationCopperhorn ScoutStronghold DisciplineCharging RhinoLiliana's SpecterHowling WolfNecromantic ThirstScaled WurmQuag VampiresEchoing CourageGrudge Keeper
Elvish AberrationInfectious HorrorSporecap SpiderWakedancerSakura-Tribe ElderLiliana's SpecterSelvala's EnforcerUnhallowed PactPlummetTwisted AbominationHowling Wolf
Typhoid RatsCharging RhinoZombie GoliathElvish AberrationStronghold DisciplineGnarlid PackNecromantic ThirstCopperhorn ScoutGrudge KeeperSakura-Tribe ElderUnhallowed Pact
Echoing CourageLiliana's SpecterSporecap SpiderQuag VampiresSelvala's EnforcerTyphoid RatsPlummetInfectious HorrorCharging RhinoTwisted AbominationScaled Wurm
Zombie GoliathEchoing CourageNecromantic ThirstElvish AberrationWakedancerCopperhorn ScoutQuag VampiresGnarlid PackUnhallowed PactSporecap SpiderTyphoid Rats

The D common run consists of 18 different cards each appearing three times. It contains the remaining non-red cards. The choice of first card is mostly arbitrary.

Guardian ZendikonCompulsive ResearchTragic SlipKor ChantProvokeTyrant's ChoiceAltar's ReapValor Made RealNature's ClaimRousing of SoulsSyphon Soul
Wrap in VigorGuardian ZendikonMinamo ScrollkeeperAssassinateProvokeStasis CellTragic SlipValor Made RealTyrant's ChoiceHunger of the HowlpackCompulsive Research
Kor ChantAltar's ReapNature's ClaimMoment of HeroismMinamo ScrollkeeperSyphon SoulRespiteValor Made RealRousing of SoulsWrap in VigorAssassinate
Stasis CellAltar's ReapProvokeTragic SlipMinamo ScrollkeeperHunger of the HowlpackGuardian ZendikonMoment of HeroismRespiteTyrant's ChoiceNature's Claim
Compulsive ResearchWrap in VigorKor ChantSyphon SoulStasis CellRousing of SoulsAssassinateMoment of HeroismHunger of the HowlpackRespite

Uncommon Runs

The A uncommon run consists of 33 different cards each appearing twice. The choice of first card is mostly arbitrary.

Air ServantBarbed ShockerWood SageVow of DutyWoodvine ElementalBoldwyr IntimidatorDeathreap RitualSwords to PlowsharesFavorable WindsTreasonous OgreMortify
Vow of DutySplit DecisionDeathforge ShamanFires of YavimayaCouncil GuardianExtract from DarknessJetting GlasskiteSpontaneous CombustionWakestone GargoyleBreakthroughFlamewright
Swords to PlowsharesAir ServantHeckling FiendsMarchesa's SmugglerMarchesa's InfiltratorSoulcatcherWood SageUncontrollable AngerSky SpiritFact or FictionWoodvine Elemental
Council GuardianSplit DecisionVolcanic FalloutFlamewrightUnquestioned AuthorityFavorable WindsBoldwyr IntimidatorExtract from DarknessIntangible VirtueWind DancerUncontrollable Anger
MortifyGlimmerpoint StagBreakthroughHeckling FiendsFires of YavimayaWakestone GargoyleMarchesa's InfiltratorDeathforge ShamanSky SpiritSoulcatcherJetting Glasskite
Barbed ShockerMarchesa's SmugglerIntangible VirtueFact or FictionTreasonous OgreDeathreap RitualUnquestioned AuthorityWind DancerVolcanic FalloutSpontaneous CombustionGlimmerpoint Stag

The B uncommon run also consists of 27 different cards each appearing twice. The choice of first card is mostly arbitrary.

Spectral SearchlightSelvala's ChargeMorkrut BansheeWarmonger's ChariotMirrodin's CoreElephant GuideReckless SpiteFireshriekerSquirrel NestPlagued RusalkaReito Lantern
SmallpoxWarmonger's ChariotPeace StriderVictimizeQuicksandPelakka WurmSpectral SearchlightElephant GuidePlagued RusalkaRelic CrushVampire Hexmage
Mirrodin's CorePelakka WurmSkeletal ScryingFlaring Flame-KinGalvanic JuggernautGamekeeperSmallpoxExplorer's ScopeSquirrel NestRuned ServitorRelic Crush
Bite of the Black RoseReito LanternGalvanic JuggernautVampire HexmageGamekeeperVictimizeRuned ServitorLead the StampedePredator's HowlBite of the Black RoseQuicksand
Selvala's ChargeReckless SpitePeace StriderLead the StampedeMorkrut BansheeFlaring Flame-KinFireshriekerPredator's HowlExplorer's ScopeSkeletal Scrying

Token Run

All of the marketing cards in Conspiracy have a token, emblem, or tip on the front face. They are printed on an 11 × 11 sheet with different items appearing different numbers of times. The choice of first card is mostly arbitrary.

SpiritDack Tip CardZombieDraft Tip CardSpiritSquirrelConstructDraft Tip CardConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardDemonConstructSpiritSquirrelConstructDraft Tip CardConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardDraft Tip CardOgreSpiritSquirrelConstructSpiritConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardZombieConspiracy Tip CardSpiritSquirrelConstructDraft Tip CardConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardZombieElephantSpiritSquirrelConstructSpiritConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardDraft Tip CardDemonSpiritSquirrelConstructDraft Tip CardConspiracy Tip CardElephantDraft Tip Card
WolfDack Tip CardZombieDack Fayden EmblemSpiritSquirrelConstructDraft Tip CardConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardZombieDack Tip CardSpiritSquirrelConstructDraft Tip CardConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardZombieDraft Tip CardSpiritSquirrelConstructSpiritConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardOgreElephantSpiritSquirrelConstructDraft Tip CardConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit
WolfDack Tip CardZombieSquirrelSpiritSquirrelConstructSpiritConspiracy Tip CardElephantSpirit

Token Rarity
Dack Fayden EmblemDack Fayden Emblem × 1DemonDemon × 2OgreOgre × 2
ZombieZombie × 7WolfWolf × 10Conspiracy Tip CardConspiracy Tip Card × 12
ConstructConstruct × 12Dack Tip CardDack Tip Card × 12Draft Tip CardDraft Tip Card × 12
SquirrelSquirrel × 12ElephantElephant × 13SpiritSpirit × 26

[1] The "Compilation of Manufacture Information for MTG Products" thread on the Magic Librarities Forum lists Belgian-printed Conspiracy as uncertain. Considering this is a supplemental set that is only printed in a few languages, I think the existence of Belgian product is unlikely. (I also did not find any during my research.)